Brazil’s coffee output this year could fall close to the drought-affected levels of 2015, officials said, flagging the dent to prospects from factors such as tree fatigue and fertilizer shortages. Conab, the official Brazilian crop bureau, in its first forecast for domestic coffee output this year, pegged production at 43.7m-47.5m bags – a decline of at least 3.9m bags from last year’s record crop. At the lower end of the range, the result would only be some 400,000 bags above the harvest in 2015, when output hit its lowest in six years, amid a drought which fuelled a rally in New York arabica coffee futures above 200 cents a pound. The Conab forecast is also below expectations from some other commentators, such as Brazilian trading house Terra Forte which last week, in its own initial estimate, pegged this year’s crop at 48.1m bags. However, Conab has a reputation for conservative production data.
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Raw coffee beans, soaked in water and spices, are chewed like candy in many parts of Africa.